As the 2024 NFL season approaches its climactic end, the race for the coveted No. 1 pick in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft has intensified, with the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders deadlocked at a 2-12 record. These two storied franchises find themselves at the forefront of what promises to be a fierce competition to secure a potential franchise-altering player.
The Battle at the Bottom
It has been a challenging season for both the Giants and the Raiders. Each team grapples with a significant need for a franchise quarterback, something the upcoming draft could certainly provide. Notably, promising quarterback prospects such as Shedeur Sanders from Colorado Buffaloes and Cam Ward from Miami (FL) Hurricanes could be within reach.
The Giants, enduring a staggering nine-game losing streak, have historically possessed the No. 1 pick twice, selecting Kyle Rote in 1951 and Tucker Frederickson in 1965. On the other hand, the Raiders have managed to secure the top pick only once since 1970, drafting JaMarcus Russell in 2007. Like the Giants, the Raiders are mired in a tough season, suffering a ten-game losing streak, an unexpected nosedive after an even 2-2 start.
Remaining Schedules and Challenges
As both teams seek solace in the future, their remaining schedules feature formidable opponents. The Giants are set to confront the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, and Indianapolis Colts. Meanwhile, the Raiders will face the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and the Los Angeles Chargers in their concluding matchups for the season.
Compounding their woes, both teams have experienced quarterback instability this season. The Giants may look to Tim Boyle to step in as injuries have sidelined Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock. For the Raiders, the situation isn’t much clearer, with Desmond Ridder likely to continue at quarterback if Aidan O’Connell remains sidelined due to a knee injury.
Long Shots and Other Contenders
Beyond New York and Las Vegas, five other teams cling to faint hopes of landing the top draft pick. The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans all hover just behind the leaders with 3-11 records.
Each team faces its own set of challenges with their remaining schedules. The Patriots have the tough task of playing the Buffalo Bills twice and the Chargers once. The Browns, with a simulated chance of 13.32%, will face the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens on the road, and a critical home game against the Miami Dolphins. A strategic decision looms for the Browns as they start Dorian Thompson-Robinson against Cincinnati and bench Jameis Winston.
Predictive Models and Probabilities
Simulation models have put the Giants at a 38.6% chance of clinching the No. 1 pick, predicting they might end the season with three wins. Meanwhile, the Raiders hold a 20.31% likelihood of grabbing the top spot, also forecasted to finish the season with three victories.
The odds and probabilities paint a competitive picture at the bottom of the standings. With every game carrying significant implications for the draft order, the coming weeks are set to be a rollercoaster, not just for the fans but for the entire future of these organizations.
As the NFL season barrels towards its conclusion, the fierce battle for draft supremacy highlights the ongoing drama and excitement that the league offers, turning even the season's final moments into pivotal steps toward future glory.