At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins' recent slump continued as they fell 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. The game was particularly disheartening for Twins fans as Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning, erasing a three-run lead and further complicating Minnesota's postseason aspirations.
The Twins have lost 18 of their last 27 games, and their once-secure hold on the third AL wild-card spot has dwindled to a precarious 1 1/2 game lead. Just a month ago, FanGraphs placed the Twins' postseason odds at 95.4%. Those odds have now plummeted to 76.4%, reflecting the team's persistent struggles on the field.
Offensive Woes
Offense has been a central issue for the Twins, with the team failing to score more than three runs in 12 of their last 27 games. The overall statistics during this stretch are grim: a batting average of .236, an on-base percentage of .296, and a slugging percentage of .381. Additionally, when the bases are empty, the Twins are hitting .272, making them amongst the weakest teams in baseball in such scenarios.
Twins manager Rocco Baldelli didn't mince words when discussing his team's shortcomings. "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," he said. This sentiment was echoed by multiple players and coaching staff, reaffirming a collective sense of urgency to improve.
Pitching Problems
The pitching staff, both starting and relief, has been equally culpable. During the recent 27-game stretch, the bullpen posted a troubling 5.47 ERA and a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added. This is a stark contrast to their early season performance, where they maintained a 3.84 ERA and ranked tenth in win probability added through the first 123 games.
Griffin Jax, who gave up the decisive homer to Manzardo, described the team's current state as "pretty heartbreaking." He added, "We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
Moreover, the Twins' rotation outside of the bullpen has been equally ineffective, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start over the last 27 games. This has placed additional strain on a bullpen that is already struggling to perform.
Challenges and Changes
The Twins' schedule has not been kind either, having played 17 games in the last 18 days, contributing to the exhaustion and underperformance that are plaguing the team. The Twins had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses—an indication of late-game collapses becoming a disturbing trend.
In a bid to bolster the pitching staff, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin posted a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season. Derek Falvey, the Twins’ president of baseball operations, expressed hope in the new acquisition: "He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," he explained.
Looking Ahead
The Twins' immediate future features competitions against the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, both of whom are just two games behind Minnesota in the standings. Despite the downward trajectory, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams—one of the few remaining advantages they can lean on as the regular season winds down. The Detroit Tigers, notably, have gone 23-10 in their last 33 games, exemplifying the level of competition the Twins now face for that wild-card spot.
Bright spots are few, but some individual performances provide a glimmer of hope. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have combined to go 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month, and the return of Max Kepler is anticipated to provide a much-needed boost.
Pablo López's remarks encapsulate the current mood within the Twins' camp: "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
One thing is clear: the Twins must identify and rectify their issues quickly if they hope to clinch their postseason berth. "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," reiterated Baldelli.
For the Twins, the coming days are crucial. With the season hanging in the balance, every game, every pitch, and every at-bat carries weighty significance.