The Major League Baseball community was taken by surprise as the Chicago Cubs and the Tampa Bay Rays reached a substantial agreement just before the July 30 trade deadline. The spotlight of this significant transaction is on All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, who is set to return to the Cubs, the very organization that originally signed him as an amateur.
Paredes' journey through the MLB has been nothing short of a whirlwind. After initially signing with the Cubs, he was traded to the Detroit Tigers and later moved to the Tampa Bay Rays. Now, the 25-year-old is making his way back to Chicago. His career statistics are impressive, boasting a slash line of .237/.340/.458 (126 OPS+) with 67 home runs over 354 games. These numbers place him just behind elite third basemen like Rafael Devers, José Ramírez, Austin Riley, and Manny Machado in terms of OPS+.
Statistical Analysis and Player Potential
Despite the impressive overall stats, one area of concern for Paredes is his average exit velocity, which ranks in the 4th percentile, according to Statcast's metrics. Moreover, Robert Orr's database indicates that Paredes pulls a larger share of fly balls than anyone else in the majors. Statcast also estimates that if Paredes had been playing at Wrigley Field, he would have five fewer home runs this season and 12 fewer over his career. Despite these concerns, the Cubs see untapped potential in Paredes.
Adding Paredes to their roster, the Cubs aim to bolster their batting capacity and overall team dynamics. Paredes' contract offers the team control through the 2027 season, presenting a long-term investment in a player who has shown flashes of brilliance.
The Rays' Management Strategy
The trade comes as part of a broader shakeup for the Rays, who have made several notable trades since the start of July. Players like Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Phil Maton, Jason Adam, and now Isaac Paredes have all been moved. Despite winning 99 games last season, the Rays find themselves only half a game worse in playoff positioning compared to the "White Flag Trade" executed by the 1997 Chicago White Sox. This aggressive management style has led some to comment, "Clearly the Powers That Be in St. Petersburg view Ron Schueler as a fearless trailblazer that never got his due."
Christopher Morel: A Key Piece
A notable addition to the Rays from this deal is Christopher Morel, a promising batter also aged 25. Analysts have high hopes for Morel, noting, "Morel strikes us as someone who is a decent bet to be an above-average hitter for at least the next few years." His 90th percentile exit velocity places him in the same league as heavy hitters like Teoscar Hernández and Joc Pederson.
The Rays have versatile plans for Morel, considering positions at second base, left field, or as a designated hitter. One expert aptly summarized the potential impact, stating, "The Rays may want to plop him down at second base (or left field, or DH) and say, 'that's that, go hit and we won't mind the defensive damage.'"
Additional Moves and Prospects
Beyond Paredes and Morel, the deal also involves Bigge and Johnson. Bigge, at 26, has made four big-league appearances this season with the Cubs, while Johnson, 22, was a recent pick from Ball State in last summer’s 15th round. These additional components provide both teams with young talent to develop further.
In conclusion, the trade between the Cubs and the Rays represents a gamble for both teams, balancing immediate needs with long-term potential. As the season progresses, the baseball world will be keeping a close eye on Paredes' return to Chicago and Morel’s new role with the Rays, evaluating whether this blockbuster trade will pay off for the respective franchises.